Every year it happens. A horrible team will come from nowhere and achieve instant success. They are so common, like politicians and sex scandals, that providing specific examples really isn’t necessary. So let’s cut straight to the chase. In 2010, will the Chiefs be that team?
This conversation can only be had with diehard NFL fans. Casual fans will look at the Chiefs 10-38 record from the last three years and see it as a joke. However, diehard fans may appreciate that the possibility has some subtleties behind it. Last season some of the more conspicuous pieces for a sudden turnaround were assembled by the Chiefs. Scott Pioli, new general manager, was hired and Todd Haley, a new head coach, was brought in. New systems were installed by Haley, including the 3-4 defense and shotgun spread offense. Haley and Pioli invested in a new quarterback, Matt Cassel, as well as cultivating the team’s young talent, including about half of their defense along with Jamaal Charles, running back.
These changes represent part of a rebuilding effort that is major. It is certainly debatable whether or not the people chosen are the right individuals for the changes. However, for this introduction’s sake, let us assume that the right guy is Haley and that his systems do work. Also, assume with better players surrounding him and with experience, that Cassel can be like he was for the Patriots down the stretch in 2008.
If the building blocks have been put into place, subtle elements will be what propel the Chiefs to the top.
What exactly are the subtle elements?
Let’s start with the remainder of the Chief’s coaching staff. Kansas City made gains with their mission of becoming the Midwest version of the Patriots when they hired Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel as defensive coordinator. Emmitt Thomas, retired defensive back and Hall of Famer, has been brought in to handle the young secondary. A smart play caller, Haley did show some humility when he turned over the team’s offense to Weis.
Haley, when he took over prior to last season, showed a lot of wisdom when he brought in other prominent assistants to infuse his staff. Gary Gibbs, former defensive coordinator with the Saints, is the linebacker coach. Steve Hoffman, respected kicking instructor, is responsible for special teams. A coach for more than 40 years, Bill Muir is responsible for the offensive line. Maurice Carthon, running backs coach and assistant head coach, was an offensive coordinator once in Cleveland, Detroit and Dallas. Almost all of the top assistant of Haley’s held titles that were higher in other organizations.
The Hunt Family, owners of the Chiefs, wants the team built via the draft. Pioli, instead of acquiring big name veterans, filled in the cracks temporarily with role players who were cost effective. Casey Wiegmann, veteran center, was signed to potentially replace Rudy Niswanger. If Wiegmann, who will turn 37 years old soon, is able to prove in training camp that he hasn’t lost a step, he will not only give the team an inside upgrade but also make a great tutor for Jon Asamoah, third round gritty rookie.
Essentially Pioli replaced Mike Goff, right guard who was athletically depleted, with Ryan Lilja, former Colt and free agent who went undrafted and who was cut by the Chiefs reluctantly six years ago. The additions of a new right guard and veteran center helps to stabilize the offensive line’s interior, which will help with the development of Branden Albert, cornerstone left tackle. These changes, along with the acquisition of Thomas Jones, veteran running back, provide the Chiefs with an inside running game. A year ago they didn’t have that.
In terms of the passing game, they didn’t gamble with a wide receiver with a big name like Brandon Marshall or Terrell Owens. Instead $5.9 million was spent by Pioli to resign Chris Chambers, the team’s play maker. He also used a second round draft selection on Dexter McCluster, who is a multi threat, Percy Harvin-like player who provides the Chiefs offense with a creativity dimension that is much needed.
Small personnel changes such as these could make the difference. Of course Chiefs detractors will argue that Kansas City failed to make adjustments on defense. That is true, minus selecting safety Eric Berry with their No. 5 pick. However in 2010 unseen defensive talent still could emerge. Many predict that Berry will be a star. If that turns out to be true the secondary of the Chiefs could become one of the NFL’s brightest young unit. As a whole, the teams linebacking corps isn’t very impressive. However there are two key players in Tamba Hali, an unheralded star, and Cory Mays, underrated run stopper.
The problem is that the Chiefs linebackers play behind a defensive line of three men that every week gets manhandled. And Kansas City has invested the most heavily in the defensive line. In 2008 Glenn Dorsey, defensive end, was the fifth overall draft pick. In 2009 Tyson Jackson was the third overall pick. Playing next to Ron Edwards, the nose tackle, both of these miscast defensive ends in the Patriot-esque scheme have turned out to be feeble anchors. This is the main reason why last season the Chiefs ranked 31st for total sacks and run defense.
However what is the defensive line could be suddenly improved with a subtle adjustment? Would that cause a domino effect over the whole team? Would that be a climatic chapter for a success story coming out of nowhere? Or would that be more evidence that subtle changes are insufficient for a hapless team?
Offense
It may be a stretch to assume that Matt Cassel with rediscover his 2008 form. Last year was his first with the Chiefs and first season where he was playing as a quarterback burdened with expectations. Cassel only averaged 5.9 yards for every pass attempt. He also was intercepted as many times as he threw touchdowns (both were 16). Cassel, like most quarterbacks who struggle, is uncomfortable being in a pocket that is cluttered and has a tendency of focusing on the rush a lot more than he does his receivers. The willingness he has of running with the ball is symptomatic more of his uncertainty that athleticism.
In all fairness, Cassel didn’t receive very good pass protection. Kansas City surrendered 45 sacks, sixth most for the NFL. Adding right guard Ryan Lilja should help to stabilize the interior. However, drastic improvements for the offensive line will need to take place with the tackles. It is time that Branden Albert, third year pro, make quantum leaps over on the left hand side. This guard from Virginia turned tackle has performed better than the critics have claimed, however not by any great stretch. Albert needs to make improvements with his awareness and initial quickness. Ryan O’Callaghan, right tackle, doesn’t possess feet good enough for thriving on the professional level. Bill Muir, offensive line coach, need to get Callaghan to change his technique to minimize the collapse in his area of the pocket. Ikechuku Ndukwe, former Dolphin and underwhelming guard, is listed as the main backup for the tackle position, which means the Chiefs will sink or swim using O’Callaghan and Albert. Unless someone gets hurt Ndukwe shouldn’t be on the field.
Rudy Niswanger gets pushed around and out-quicked in tight quarters. That’s one of the main reasons why the Chiefs need to get Jon Asamoah, their third round pick, trained to be the first option inside off the bench. They seem reluctant to start Casey Wiegmann, the veteran. Asamoah will be backing up Brian Waters at left guard. Waters, although 33 years old, is a leader with Pro Bowl caliber still.
The mobility of Waters and his knack for driving and locking defenders in 2010 should be paying more dividends now that they have Thomas Jones, who is a journeyman as well as a star that gives Kansas City a running presence inside. The arrival of Jones made it necessary to hold onto lead blockers Tim Castille and Mike Cox even though they have limited skills.
Although last year Jones rushed for 1,402 yards, his career high, and is the only running back along with Steven Jackson of the Rams to have currently had five 1,000 yard seasons in a row, it’s obvious he will be working behind Jamaal Charles, a rising star. There aren’t many players who strictly run outside that can average, like Charles did in 2009, 5.9 yards a carry. Even fewer players possess the breakaway speed and lateral agility Charles. Over last season’s eight final games, the 2008 third round selection out of Texas rushed for 968 yards.
In terms of pay for quarterbacks this year, Cassel will be third highest in the NFL at $11.75 million. However, that won’t deter Haley from turning to Brodie Croyle should the Chiefs passing game falter or stagnate. However as a starter Croyle is 0-9. Kansas City, with a running game that must be respected by opposing defenses and a front five that is improved, the Chiefs have all the right ingredients for a decent aerial attack. On the outside Chris Chambers has the ability to stretch the field. Dexter McCluster, the second round versatile rookie, is able to make players from either slot or the backfield. Leonard Pope, 6-8, 264 pound tight end, makes a great target inside the red zone, although Tony Moeaki, third round rookie does have a wider range of skills. There is also Brad Cottam, the huge 6-7, 269 pound third year pro. Originally he was thought of as a blocker, however as a receiver he has been able to show a fluidity that is surprising.
Dwayne Bowe is the one question mark. Although he has had 2,017 receiving yards during the first two seasons of his NFL career his ho hum speed, immaturity and poor work habits have caused the former first round draft choice to be seen as a disappointment. Bowe, due to the fact that the backup receivers for the Chiefs are Terrence Copper, Lance Long and Jerheme Urban from special teams, will have plenty of opportunities for turning things around. Kansas City will have all the major bases covered when it comes to the passing game if Bowe can use his athletic skills and strength to become a receiver who is reliable.
Defense
The Chiefs must make an adjustment to their defensive line. There is indisputable evidence that the 3-4 scheme, predicated on up front power will not work with the nose tackle being Ron Edwards and the ends being Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey. Edwards is only an average player and cannot command double teams. Jackson and Dorsey are high energy players but they lack the strength and size for holding their point. However it’s still too early for giving up on these former top five draft picks. Kansas City doesn’t really have a choice, considering that backups Alex Magee and Wallace Gilberry are passing down, undersized players.
What type of adjustments can the Chiefs make? They could trying sliding one of their defensive ends over to nose tackle and hope they find another Jay Ratliff (the explosive but undersized Cowboys one gap penetrator). Jackson doesn’t have the initial burst needed for that, however Dorsey could be an option. The odds of this succeeding aren’t really encouraging. However, the odds are zero if you don’t move away from the status quo.
Shaun Smith, the 325 pound newcomer, will most likely see snaps both outside and inside. He doesn’t play hard all the time but has the size at least for keeping blockers from the linebackers, which is critical for Cory Mays, inside linebacker in his fifth year, who is outstanding as a read and then react run stopper. Mays is an undrafted journeyman but has a very high football IQ, allowing him to take strategic angles to the football and help make up some lacking in speed from Demorrio Williams, inside linebacker, and Mike Vrabel outside backer. Javon Belcher, second year pro, will probably end up taking over for Williams. Vrabel is returning for his 14th season after singing a contract for one more year. However it might be a good idea to have Andy Studebaker, third year pro, replace him. Although he is not a tantalizing prospect, Studebaker for his size does move fairly well.
Many times the more variations there are for defensive personnel, the worse the defense is. Players are specialists because they excel in one area. When it comes to defensive personnel packages, specialists are what it’s all about. Tamba Hali, outside linebacker, is a disruptor with high octane who is able to play with leverage and great quickness. He is the only player from the front seven who stays on the field during dime and nickel packages. All the other positions on the front seven are filled with passing down specialists. The defensive end slots are filled by Magee and Gilberry; At inside linebacker it is Derrick Johnson and Belcher; on the outside Vrabel will likely be replaced by Cameron Sheffield, fifth round undersize defensive end rookie from Troy.
Except for Hali and perhaps Sheffield, Kansas City doesn’t have any viable pass rushers. Last season they had the second fewest sacks in the NFL at 22 although they did double their 10 sacks from 2008, an NFL record low. A pass rush that was halfway decent would be huge for the Romeo Crennel unit, particularly if you take into account that the Chiefs have a young secondary ready to blossom.
Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, third year corners, seem to both improve every week. The better player is Carr. Javier Arenas, a second round draft pick, is a talented return artist. However he is also expected to help with slot defending responsibilities that Donald Washington, Maurice Leggett, Travis Daniels and Mike Richardson botched last year.
Kansas City is relying on Eric Berry, the rookie, to become a star instantly. The heralded Tennesseee three year captain has been compared to Brian Dawkins and Ed Reed. For a free safety that’s like making comparisons with God. The coverage range of Berry’s is critical as the Chiefs are hoping to avoid placing safeties Jarrad Page or Jon McGraw in that space.
Special Teams
Last season Ryan Succop, the kicker, was Mr. Irrelevant. That epithet might be welcome considering the other option for him was being called his last name. He missed just four field goals last year, with three being from over 50 yards. On his kicks Dustin Colqitt, the punter, gets good height. That’s one of the reasons why the coverage unit only allowed 7.1 yards a return which was the seventh best last year in the league. The Chiefs coaching staff is giddy over seeing Javier Arenas, who returned seven punts for touchdowns while at Alabama, as part of the return game for Kansas City.
Bottom Line
It isn’t impossible that the Chiefs could have a breakout season. If Matt Cassel is able to perform well, the Chiefs offense in most of the major statistical categories will rank within the mid to upper range. The biggest issue for the team is the lack of pass rush prowess and size from the defensive front seven. There may be more talent there than is obvious, however the talented coaching staff of the Chiefs will need to work their magic.
Predictions: 3rd place in the AFC West
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